Monday, October 3, 2016
Loudonville, NY. The voters of the 24th C.D. elected a Republican to Congress in 2006, 2010 and 2014, and a Democrat in 2008 and 2012. Trying to buck that trend in his first re-election race, Republican Representative John Katko has a solid 19-point lead over Democrat Colleen Deacon heading into the final five weeks of the campaign, according to today’s new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 24th C.D. voters. Katko has twice as much Democratic support (28 percent) as Deacon has Republican support (13 percent), and in a district with slightly more enrolled Democrats, he also leads two-to-one with independents.
By large margins, voters say climate change is a real, significant threat (74-20 percent) and want a pathway to citizenship for aliens here illegally (66-27 percent). Voters consider themselves 2nd Amendment rather than gun control supporters (54-43 percent) and narrowly support keeping Obamacare (50-45 percent). They are equally divided (47-47 percent) on whether the federal government should increase or lessen its role to stimulate the economy. In the race for President, Hillary Clinton has a 45-33 percent lead over Donald Trump, while Chuck Schumer has a better than two-to-one, 62-28 percent, lead over Wendy Long in the race for United States Senate.
“Five campaign weeks is a long time but Katko is in a strong position for re-election in this district that has changed the party of its Representative in each of the last four elections. And he’s in a strong position despite being both an incumbent – incumbents have lost the last three elections – and a Republican, when Democrats have won the congressional seat in the last two presidential elections,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Katko is supported by more than three-quarters of Republicans, compared to 62 percent of Democrats for Deacon.”
“In addition to Deacon’s challenge of winning back more Democrats, she trails two-to-one with independents,” Greenberg said. “Katko leads by 22 points with men and 16 points with women. He leads by double digits and gets half the vote in Syracuse and Onondaga County, as well as leading by 27 points in Cayuga/Oswego/Wayne Counties.
“Katko is well known and well liked throughout the district, with a 51-29 percent favorability rating, significantly better than Deacon’s 32-27 percent favorability rating. Katko is viewed favorably by 39 percent of Democrats, and even has a better favorability rating in Syracuse than does Deacon,” Greenberg said. “And Katko is doing this in a district that has a favorable view of President Obama and gives Clinton a 12-point lead over Trump. In fact, nearly one-quarter of Katko voters support Clinton. Twelve percent of C.D. voters support both Clinton and Katko.”
District with Close Partisan Divide is Similarly Divided on Several Hot Button Issues
“Voters, by a larger than 50-point majority, believe that climate change is a significant threat – including a strong majority of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Two-thirds, including half of Republicans, support a path to citizenship for aliens here illegally.
“A majority of voters – including three-quarters of Republicans and a majority of independents – consider themselves 2nd Amendment supporters, rather than gun control supporters, despite that being the view of two-thirds of Democrats,” Greenberg said. “A small majority of the district supports keeping Obamacare, despite independents being opposed and Republicans strongly opposed, because of 81 percent support from Democrats. And with Democrats and Republicans being polar opposites and independents closely divided, it’s no surprise that voters are evenly divided on the size of federal government’s involvement in the economy.”
Trump has Small Lead Over Clinton in Close Race; Schumer Has Solid Double-Digit Lead Over Long
“Clinton has a sizeable 12-point lead over Trump, supported by 79 percent of Democrats – compared to 58 percent support for Trump among Republicans – and an 11-point lead with independents. Trump and Clinton run even with men, while she leads among women 51-27 percent,” Greenberg said. “Schumer, leading Long by 73 points with Democrats and 42 points with independents, only trails Long among Republicans by 16 points.”
“More voters know Katko than Deacon. More voters view Katko favorably. And more voters have seen Katko commercials and been contacted by his campaign,” Greenberg said. “As a Democrat, Deacon has a small edge in enrollment and the top of the ticket will certainly not be a liability for her campaign. Yet, she has an awful lot of ground to make up in the next five weeks, even though by a very small margin, voters would like to see the Democrats regain control of the House.”
This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 24th C.D. survey was conducted September 22-29, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 655 likely 24th C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.