Monday, September 21, 2015
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton is viewed unfavorably by more New Yorkers (51 percent) than those who have a favorable view of her (46 percent) for the first time ever, down from 56-40 percent positive in July, according to a new Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today. While a majority of Democrats say that Vice President Joe Biden should run for President, in a potential primary matchup Clinton is supported by 45 percent of Democrats, compared to 24 percent for Biden and 23 percent for Senator Bernie Sanders.
Donald Trump leads the Republican primary field with 34 percent support, followed by Ben Carson (14 percent) and Jeb Bush (11 percent) and everyone else in single digits. Although Trump is viewed favorably by 60 percent of Republicans – the highest of any of the candidates – he is viewed unfavorably by 65 percent of all New York voters, also the highest of any candidate.
“For the first time ever, Hillary Clinton is under water with New York voters, facing her worst favorability rating ever in her adopted home state. Her favorability rating has seen a net drop of 21 points since July,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“While still overwhelmingly popular with Democrats, 70-27 percent, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 86 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of independents. She is viewed unfavorably by at least 60 percent of all upstate and downstate suburban voters, as well as among men and white voters,” Greenberg said.
“By a 53-38 percent margin, Democrats say Biden should run for President and he has a solid 54-40 percent favorability rating, while Sanders has a negative 38-41 percent favorability rating,” Greenberg said. “However, Clinton is the choice of New York Democrats, with Biden and Sanders each trailing her by more than 20 points. And a plurality of Democrats, 42 percent, say Sanders is the candidate they’d least like to see lead the ticket.”
“With four months until the first presidential votes are cast and seven months until New Yorkers get to weigh in, New York GOP voters give Trump a commanding lead, as he garners the support of 34 percent of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Carson and Bush have low double digit support, with the rest of the candidates – including former three-term Governor George Pataki (three percent) – in single digits.
“However, Trump is also the candidate that more Republicans (25 percent) say they would least like to lead their ticket, followed closely by Bush (22 percent),” Greenberg said.
“Of ten Republican presidential candidates polled, only Carson, 40-37 percent, has a positive favorability rating among all voters, with Trump being viewed unfavorably by the most, 65 percent, and Bush close behind at 64 percent,” Greenberg said.
“Trump is viewed favorably by 60 percent of Republicans and is one of only four candidates to be viewed favorably by Republicans, along with Carson, Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina. Pataki, Trump, Bush, Chris Christie, and Ted Cruz are all viewed unfavorably by at least 58 percent of all New Yorkers and all but Trump are viewed unfavorably by at least a plurality of Republicans as well.”
Biden leads Bush, Carson and Trump by between 20 and 29 points. Clinton leads each of the three by between 12 and 19 points and Sanders leads the three by between seven and 19 points. Carson runs strongest among the three Republicans against each of the three Democrats.
“New York has been in the ‘blue’ column for every presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984 and there’s no evidence yet – one year out – that points to that three-decade trend being reversed next year,” Greenberg said. “Biden runs best against the three leading Republican candidates, and he runs stronger against each of the three than does Clinton with Democrats, Republicans and independents. Though Sanders has a bigger lead against Bush than does Clinton, she has bigger leads than Sanders against Carson and Trump.”
New Yorkers Overwhelmingly View Pope Francis Favorably; Anticipate His Positive Impact on World
New Yorkers view Pope Francis favorably 73-11 percent, with Catholics viewing the Pope favorably 83-6 percent. When asked to what extent they agree with various positions the Pope has taken, 43 percent say they agree with at least most of his positions, 33 percent agree with some and 13 percent agree with few if any (58-28-9 percent among Catholics). More than six in ten voters (two-thirds of Catholics) think the Pope will bring major change to the Catholic Church. Seventy-five percent say Francis will have a positive effect (26 percent say a significant positive effect) on the people of the world, while six percent say he will have a negative effect.
“New Yorkers of every stripe have an overwhelmingly favorable view of Pope Francis. At least 69 percent of voters from every party and region view the Pope favorably, as do 83 percent of Catholics, 68 percent of Jews and 65 percent of Protestants,” Greenberg said. “No demographic group gives him an unfavorable rating higher than 20 percent.
“Three-quarters of New Yorkers – 82 percent of Catholics, 77 percent of Jews and 70 percent of Protestants – say the Pope will have a positive effect on the people of the world. At least 63 percent of every demographic group agrees. Clearly, New Yorkers have great admiration and great expectations for Pope Francis,” Greenberg said.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted September 14-17, 2015 by telephone calls conducted in English to 817 New York State registered voters, including 378 Democrats and 214 Republicans. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points for Democrats and +/- 6.7 percentage points for Republicans. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample provided by Survey Sampling International of landline and cell phone telephone numbers from within New York State weighted to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.