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Rice Has 18-Point Lead Over Blakeman

Rice Has 18-Point Lead Over Blakeman

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Newsday / News 12 Long Island / Siena College 4th Congressional District Poll:
Rice Has 18-Point Lead Over Blakeman in Open LI Seat
Voters Support Minimum Wage Increase, Term Limits, Immigration Reform, ‘Buffett Rule’ & Greater US Involvement in Mideast to Combat Terrorism; Plurality Support for Repealing Obamacare
Rice Doing Better with Dems Than Blakeman Does with Reps

Loudonville, NY.  Democrat Kathleen Rice leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by 18 points, 55-37 percent, in the battle to replace retiring Nassau County Democratic Representative Carolyn McCarthy according to a Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 4th C.D. voters released today.  Rice leads among Democrats by more than six-to-one, while Blakeman has a two-to-one lead with Republicans.

Likely voters support increasing the federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour (66-24 percent), amending the Constitution to implement congressional term limits (65-21 percent), passing comprehensive immigration reform legislation (63-22 percent), enacting the ‘Buffett Rule’ to impose a minimum 30 percent income tax rate on millionaires (57-25 percent), and believe the U.S. should do more politically and militarily in Syria and Iraq to combat terrorism (56-37 percent).  By a 47-41 percent margin, voters back repealing Obamacare.

“Having twice been elected countywide, Kathleen Rice is far better known than Bruce Blakeman and kicks off the final seven weeks of the campaign with a solid 18-point lead,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “While the candidates are closely dividing independent voters, Rice is doing a far better job of holding onto Democrats than Blakeman is doing with Republicans.

“Rice leads by nine points with men and 27 points with women. Catholic voters, half the electorate, are closely divided between the two candidates but Protestant and Jewish voters overwhelmingly side with Rice. There are twice as many conservatives as liberals and Blakeman has the support of two-thirds of conservatives. However, 90 percent of liberals are with Rice, and so are moderates by a two-to-one margin,” Greenberg said.

“Rice has a better than two-to-one favorability rating with only 13 percent not knowing enough to have an opinion. Blakeman is unknown to half of voters and those who know him are divided between viewing him favorably and unfavorably. His favorability doesn’t top 30 percent with any group other than Republicans, while hers doesn’t fall below 50 percent with any group other than Republicans,” Greenberg said.

“Voters say Rice will be better than Blakeman on taxes and turmoil in the Mideast by six points. They give Rice double digit leads on every other issue, including a 14-point edge on jobs, voters’ most important issue,” Greenberg said. “And by a 20-point margin they say she will better represent their communities’ interests in Washington.”

Majority of Democrats and Republicans Agree on Several Issues; Wide Partisan Split on Obamacare
“A solid majority of Republicans and Democrats agree on imposing Congressional term limits, increasing the federal minimum wage, passing comprehensive immigration reform, and urging America to do more politically and militarily in Iraq and Syria to combat terrorism,” Greenberg said. “Democrats overwhelmingly support the Buffett Rule and a plurality of Republicans does so as well. While a majority of Democrats oppose repealing Obamacare, Republicans favor repeal better than two-to-one, and a majority of independents favor repeal.”

Cuomo Leads Astorino by 27 Points, with Sizeable Republican Support
“Governor Andrew Cuomo leads Rob Astorino 58-31 percent. With Democrats, Cuomo has a 73-point lead, while Astorino only leads by 19 points with Republicans. Independents give Cuomo a nine-point edge. Cuomo has a 59-37 percent favorability rating, compared to Astorino’s negative 26-31 percent,” Greenberg said.

“There’s still a lot of time for Blakeman to become more known to voters before Election Day. However, in this district with a slight Democratic enrollment edge and given the popularity of the sitting District Attorney, he clearly has his work cut out for him,” Greenberg said.  “Voters know Rice, like Rice and think she’s better on all the issues. Voters may be equally divided on which party they want controlling the next Congress, however, they are not – at least for now – evenly divided on who they want their Representative to be.”

This Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College 4th C.D. survey was conducted September 10-15, 2014 by telephone calls to 596 likely voters.  A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters that had been statistically adjusted to reflect party registration, gender and age.  It has a margin of error of + 4.0 percentage points.  The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS.  SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.