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Gibson Has Early 24-Point Lead

Gibson Has Early 24-Point Lead

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 19th Congressional District Poll:

Gibson Has Early, Large 24-Point Lead Over Eldridge
About Two-Thirds of Voters Support Term Limits, Increase in Minimum Wage, ‘Buffett Rule’ & Comprehensive Immigration Reform
Voters Closely Divided on Both More Middle East Political/Military Involvement, and Repealing & Replacing Obamacare
By Generally Wide Margins, Gibson Seen as Better on Issues

Loudonville, NY.  Republican Representative Chris Gibson holds a strong, early 24-point lead over Democrat Sean Eldridge. Gibson has the support of 57 percent of likely voters compared to 33 percent who support Eldridge, with 10 percent still undecided, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today.  By margins ranging from nine to 29 points, voters see Gibson as better than Eldridge on a series of six issues.

Strong majorities of voters support congressional term limits (71-16 percent), the ‘Buffett Rule,’ requiring a minimum 30 percent income tax rate for millionaires (67-16 percent), increasing the federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour (67-21 percent), and enacting comprehensive immigration reform (64-21 percent).  Voters are split on repealing Obamacare (44 percent support, 45 percent oppose) and are closely divided on doing more politically and militarily in Syria and Iraq (42 percent) vs. concentrating on our problems at home (47 percent).

“It may be early but incumbent Chris Gibson has a commanding 24-point lead against a well-financed challenger in Sean Eldridge. Gibson has the support of nearly nine in ten Republicans and 60 percent of independents, as well as one-quarter of Democrats,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. 

“Gibson has double digit leads in every region of the district, with an overwhelming 41-point lead in the area surrounding the Capital Region,” Greenberg said. “There is little gender gap as Gibson leads by 28 points with men and 20 points with women. Eldridge has a lot of catching up to do now if he hopes to make this race competitive in the closing weeks of the campaign.”

“On every issue, including the most important issues to voters and those traditionally seen as Democratic strengths, voters say Gibson will do a better job than Eldridge. The range of support for Gibson is between nine points on health care and 29 points on war and political turmoil in the Mideast,” Greenberg said.

Strong Support for Term Limits, Minimum Wage Increase, Immigration Reform, Buffett Rule
“Roughly two-thirds of voters – including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents – support a Constitutional amendment to impose congressional term limits, an increase in the minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $10.10, the Buffett Rule, and comprehensive immigration reform,” Greenberg said.

“Republicans and Democrats are both closely divided about whether the U.S. should do more in Iraq and Syria to combat terrorism or concentrate on problems here at home. However, on Obamacare, which evenly divides all voters, Republicans strongly want it repealed, while Democrats are strongly opposed to repealing it. By a small margin, independents support repeal,” Greenberg said.

Cuomo & Astorino are Neck and Neck; Both Have Negative Favorability Ratings
“Andrew Cuomo has a slim 39-36 percent lead over Rob Astorino, with Howie Hawkins supported by 12 percent,” Greenberg said. “Cuomo has a negative 34-60 percent favorability rating, while Astorino’s is negative 24-32 percent, with 44 percent having no opinion.”

“At this point in 2012, Gibson led by 16 points in a Siena poll, closing to five points in the final Siena poll, before winning by six points,” Greenberg said. “Eldridge has a lot of work to do to close the gap but in this district with nearly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans the race is likely to tighten. Stay tuned.”

This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 19th C.D. survey was conducted September 4-9, 2014 by telephone calls to 609 likely voters.  A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters that had been statistically adjusted to reflect party registration, gender and age.  It has a margin of error of + 4.0 percentage points.  The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS.  SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.