The Siena College Research Institute and The New York Times are partnering on a completely unprecedented initiative: publishing live poll results of the most competitive Congressional races across the country.
"No media organization has ever tried something like this, and we hope to set a new standard of transparency," the Times said in its article introducing the collaboration.
Nearly 100 polls will be conducted between now and two days before Election Day on November 6, according to Don Levy, Ph.D., director of the SCRI. Voters will be asked not only which candidate they prefer in their local Congressional race, but other questions about their views on key political figures and hot-button issues such as immigration, taxes and the opioid crisis.
Up to 60 pivotal races across the country will be featured in the cutting-edge polling, results of which will be shared in real time on The New York Times/The Upshot website.
“Readers will see the poll results at the same time the pollsters do,” Levy said. “They’ll be able to see precisely where in a Congressional district calls are being made, which is what polling is all about: talking to voters, one by one.”
The first Congressional races polled included:
- California 48 (Orange County; Rohabacher)
- Illinois 6 (Chicago suburbs; Roskam)
- Illinois 12 (Downstate Illinois; Bost)
- Kentucky 6 (Lexington area; Barr)
- Minnesota 8 (Iron Range; open)
- Minnesota 3 (Minneapolis suburbs; Paulsen)
The week of September 9, the polling will include:
- West Virginia 3 (coal country, open)
- Virigina 7 (Richmond suburbs; Brat)
- Wisconsin 1 (southeastern Wisconsin; open)
- Texas 23 (western Texas; Hurd)
- Colorado 6 (eastern Denver metro; Coffman)
- Maine 2 (Maine, except for southwest coast; Poliquin)
- Kansas 2 (eastern Kansas, except Kansas City; open)
Results and upcoming polls will be announced on websites for The Upshot and the Siena College Research Institute, as will detailed information on all of the subgroups and questions for the races.
Margins of error are ranging between +/- 4.6 to 4.9 percent, well within acceptable margins at the 95 percent confidence level.