Saturday, October 8, 2016
Loudonville, NY. Facing his first re-election effort, freshman Republican Representative Lee Zeldin holds a 53-38 percent lead over his Democratic challenger, Anna Throne-Holst heading into the final month of the campaign, according to today’s new Newsday/Siena College poll of likely 1st C.D. voters. Zeldin has the support of 84 percent of Republicans and leads by 17 points with independents.
By large margins, voters say climate change is a real, significant threat (72-22 percent) and want a pathway to citizenship for aliens here illegally (61-32 percent). Voters support repealing Obamacare (55-43 percent) but are evenly divided on whether they consider themselves gun control (49 percent) rather than 2nd Amendment (48 percent) supporters and on whether the federal government should increase or lessen its role to stimulate the economy (47-47 percent). In the race for President, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 43-40 percent, while Chuck Schumer has a 56-36 percent lead over Wendy Long in the race for United States Senate.
“After knocking off a six-term incumbent Democrat two years ago, Zeldin heads into the final month of the campaign with a 15-point lead seeking his first re-election in this district that tilts Republican,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “He has the support of 84 percent of Republicans, picks up 16 percent of Democrats and leads with independents 53-36 percent. He leads by 18 points in Brookhaven and 13 points in the eastern towns.
“While there is a gender gap – Zeldin leads Throne-Holst by 27 points with men and five points with women – it’s not nearly enough to make the race closer,” Greenberg said. “In fact, while Throne-Holst is down by five points with women, Clinton beats Trump by 13 points with women.”
“Throne-Holst remains largely unknown to two-fifths of voters and has a seven-point positive favorability rating among those who do have an opinion about her,” Greenberg said. “Zeldin is far better known and his favorability rating is 16 points to the positive side.
“Zeldin’s lead is far greater than the narrow three-point lead Trump has over Clinton. And Zeldin does not appear to be hurt by voters having a two-to-one unfavorable view of the House of Representatives,” Greenberg said. “While 60 percent of voters have seen or heard a Zeldin ad, only 43 percent have heard or seen an ad from Throne-Holst.
Voters Evenly Divided on Gun Issues & Federal Involvement in Stimulating the Economy
“Voters overwhelmingly see climate change as a significant threat to the planet, with only 22 percent – three percent of Democrats, 21 percent of independents and 37 percent of Republicans – saying it is not real. By almost two-to-one, voters support a path to citizenship for those here illegally, with Republicans closely divided. By 12 points, district voters want to repeal Obamacare, with 82 percent of Republicans and 62 percent of independents opposing Obamacare, and 82 percent of Democrats supporting it,” Greenberg said.
“On the issue of guns, voters are closely divided with a huge partisan split. Eighty-three percent of Democrats describe themselves as gun control supporters, while 69 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents are self-described 2nd Amendment supporters,” Greenberg said. “Similarly, 78 percent of Democrats want the federal government to do more to stimulate the economy, while 67 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents say the federal government should lessen its role, giving business more freedom to operate.”
Trump Edges Clinton By 3 Points; Schumer Bests Long by 20 Points
“Trump, with a 16-point lead among independents, ekes out a three-point lead over Clinton. Trump leads by 21 points with men and 23 points with voters without a college degree, while Clinton leads by 13 points with women and 14 points with those with a college degree,” Greenberg said. “Schumer leads Long by 88 points with Democrats and 11 points with independents, and even has nearly one-third of Republicans supporting him.”
“With more than four weeks to go, Throne-Holst’s campaign has its work cut out. She needs to become more known to voters and she has to convince enough voters to support her over an incumbent who is well liked,” Greenberg said. “Zeldin – with overwhelming Republican support, strong independent support and support from traditionally Democratic demographic groups such as women and voters with a college degree – heads into the closing weeks in strong position in this district.”
This Newsday/Siena College 1st C.D. survey was conducted September 28-October 4, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 661 likely 1st C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.