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Suozzi Holds 16-Point Lead Over Martins, 50-34%

Suozzi Holds 16-Point Lead Over Martins, 50-34%

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Newsday / Siena College 3rd Congressional District Poll:
Suozzi Holds 16-Point Lead Over Martins, 50-34%

Suozzi Wins Dems Big, Gets ¼ of Reps & Has Small Lead with Inds

Voters Strongly Say Climate Change Is a Real Threat & Want Path
to Citizenship for Illegal Aliens; Narrowly Want Obamacare Repealed; Consider Themselves Gun Control Supporters

Clinton By 9 Points Over Trump; Schumer Beating Long Two-to-One

Loudonville, NY.  In the race to replace retiring Democratic Representative Steve Israel, former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, the Democrat, leads Republican State Senator Jack Martins 50-34 percent, according to today’s new Newsday/Siena College poll of likely 3rd C.D. voters.  Suozzi has the support of 81 percent of Democrats, 25 percent of Republicans and leads with independents by five points.

Three-quarters of voters say climate change is a real, significant threat (75-17 percent) and two-thirds want a pathway to citizenship for aliens here illegally (66-28 percent). A majority identify themselves as gun control supporters rather than 2nd Amendment supporters (56-38 percent). Voters narrowly support repealing Obamacare (51-46 percent) and are closely divided on whether the federal government should lessen (48 percent) or increase (45 percent) its role to stimulate the economy. Hillary Clinton has a 47-38 percent lead over Donald Trump, and in the race for United States Senate, Chuck Schumer has a lopsided 61-32 percent lead over Wendy Long.

“Suozzi, with a 15-point positive favorability rating, has a strong 50-34 percent lead over Martins, who is largely unknown to nearly 60 percent of voters,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Suozzi is locked in with Democrats, leading 81-9 percent, and garners support from 25 percent of Republicans, as well as having a small 37-32 percent lead with independents.

“Suozzi has a 20-point lead in Nassau, more than half of the district. Suozzi leads by 23 points in Queens and eight points in Suffolk,” Greenberg said. “Martins is behind by 11 points with men and 21 points with women.”

“The fact that he currently represents nearly one-quarter of the C.D.’s voters as State Senator, doesn’t appear to be helping Martins, as he trails Suozzi, the former Nassau County Executive, in the 7th S.D. 54-36 percent,” Greenberg said. “Suozzi is far more well known than Martins and viewed favorably by nearly twice as many voters as view Martins favorably.

“In this tough-to-break-through media market, 44 percent of voters have seen or heard a Suozzi commercial, compared to only 25 percent who’ve heard or seen an ad for Martins,” Greenberg said. “Far more voters have not yet been touched by the Martins campaign compared to the Suozzi campaign.”

Voters Overwhelmingly See Climate Change as Threat & Want Citizenship Path for Illegal Immigrants
“Climate change is a significant threat says virtually all Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and a strong majority of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Republicans differ from Democrats and independents on the immigration question as a small majority of Republicans wants to see immigrants here illegally deported, while a large majority of independents and a huge majority of Democrats want to see them have a path to citizenship.”

“Republicans and Democrats also strongly disagree on Obamacare and the issue of guns. While 82 percent of Democrats call themselves gun control supporters, as do 55 percent of independents, 64 percent of Republicans describe themselves as 2nd Amendment supporters. More than three-quarters of Democrats want Obamacare kept and improved, while an even larger majority of Republicans and small majority of independents want it repealed and replaced,” Greenberg said.

Clinton Over Trump by 9 Points; Schumer Crushing Long by 29 Points
“Despite narrowly trailing Trump with independents, Clinton has the support of 81 percent of Democrats – compared to 70 percent of Republicans with Trump – which gives her a nearly double-digit lead in this district with more Democrats than Republicans. There’s only a small gender gap, as Clinton leads with men by five points and women by 12 points,” Greenberg said. “With 90 percent support from Democrats, 58 percent from independents and even the support of one-third of Republicans, Schumer has a commanding lead over Long.

“There’s still four-plus weeks to go but Martins has a lot of ground to make up. He’s got to start by first becoming known to voters and giving them a reason to support him over someone who is more well-known and liked,” Greenberg said. “In this Democratic leaning district, with Clinton up, a popular retiring Democratic President and popular retiring Democratic Representative, Suozzi is well positioned. However, a month is a long time and momentum can shift – or not.  We’ll keep our eyes on this one.”


This Newsday/Siena College 3rd C.D. survey was conducted September 28-October 5, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 613 likely
3rd C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.  Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history.  This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender.  The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS.  SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.