Monday, October 27, 2014
Loudonville, NY. Republican Elise Stefanik has expanded her lead over Democrat Aaron Woolf to 18 points in the race to succeed Representative Bill Owens. Stefanik has the support of 50 percent of likely voters, compared to 32 percent for Woolf and 11 percent for Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello, according to a WWNY-7 News/Siena College Poll of likely 21st C.D. voters released today. In early September, Stefanik had led Woolf 46-33 percent.
“Stefanik has increased her lead over Woolf in the last six weeks and heads into the final days of the campaign with an 18 point lead,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “She is doing better with Republicans, leading by 60 points up from 53 points last month, than Woolf is doing with Democrats, with whom he leads by 35 points, down slightly from 38 points. Independents continue to closely divide their support between the two major party candidates, while one in seven independents supports Funiciello.
“Stefanik has taken a commanding 32-point lead in the southern portion of the district, closest to the Capital Region, and continues to lead by double digits in the western counties. The eastern part of the district remains a closely divided battleground between the two major party candidates,” Greenberg said. “Stefanik continues to lead Woolf by about a dozen points with women and has increased her lead with men to 24 points.”
“While Woolf has become more known to voters in the district, it’s not in a good way. He was viewed favorably by 32 percent of voters previously, and now by 34 percent. However, he’s now viewed unfavorably by 44 percent of likely voters, up from 25 percent six weeks ago,” Greenberg said. “On the other hand, Stefanik, viewed favorably by 50 percent of voters, has a net 16-point positive favorability rating, virtually unchanged from her net 15-point positive favorability rating in the last WWNY-7/Siena Poll.
“Stefanik’s favorability rating is better with Republicans than Woolf’s is with Democrats, and she has a positive favorability rating with independents, while Woolf is viewed unfavorably by more independents than view him favorably,” Greenberg said.
Cuomo Barely Ahead of Astorino; Lead Down from Nine Points to Four Points
“Governor Andrew Cuomo now has the support of 43 percent of likely voters in the 21st C.D., followed closely by Rob Astorino, who has the support of 39 percent. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has the support of 10 percent of voters. Cuomo had previously led Astorino by nine points, 44-35 percent,” Greenberg said. “With both major party candidates having negative favorability ratings, it’s not surprising that neither Cuomo nor Astorino has the support of 50 percent of voters.”
“Stefanik has stretched her lead from 13 points to 18 points and has now hit the magic 50 percent mark. Although, with Funiciello polling at 11 percent, it takes far less than 50 percent to win, as Congressman Owens knows from his previous races,” Greenberg said. “Time is quickly running out for Woolf, who has a lot of ground to make up. In a district with far more Republicans than Democrats – and when more than 90 percent of Stefanik voters say they are either absolutely or fairly certain to stick with her – Woolf has a very unenviable task in the final week of this campaign.”
This WWNY-7 News/Siena College 21st C.D. survey was conducted October 20-22, 2014 by telephone calls to 670 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters. Determined by a stringent screen, likely voters were statistically adjusted to reflect historic turnout by gender, age and party registration. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.