Friday, October 31, 2014
Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 18th Congressional District Poll:
Maloney Leads Hayworth By 5 Points in Tight Rematch
Women & Older Voters Give Maloney Narrow Lead, As Independents Split
Loudonville, NY. Heading into the closing days of this tightly contested rematch between Democratic Representative Sean Patrick Maloney and former Representative Nan Hayworth, the Republican challenger, the race continues to be tight. Maloney leads Hayworth 49-44 percent, little changed from the 50-42 percent lead Maloney had six weeks ago, according to a Time Warner Cable News/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 18th C.D. voters released today. Hayworth gained a little ground with Republicans, as Maloney gained a little ground with independents.
“Millions of dollars in advertising, thousands of phone calls and door bells rung, debates, and lots of plain old campaigning over the last six weeks, and not much has changed in this race,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Maloney had led by eight points and now leads by five points, while seven percent of voters remain undecided. Maloney continues to do a better job than Hayworth of holding on to his base, although Hayworth made some progress in bringing more Republicans into her camp. Independents, who had given Hayworth a small edge, are now divided between the two candidates.
“Maloney continues to have a double digit lead in Orange County and a narrow lead in Dutchess County, however, what had been a narrow lead in Putnam/Westchester Counties for Maloney is now a nine-point lead for Hayworth,” Greenberg said. “Maloney’s narrow overall lead is largely attributable to women and older voters. While Maloney trails by four points with men, he has a 13-point lead with women. Voters under 55 are closely divided, while Maloney leads by 10 points among voters 55 and older.”
“The campaign has taken a little bit of a toll on both candidates’ favorability ratings, although Maloney remains narrowly in positive territory and Hayworth remains narrowly in negative territory,” Greenberg said. “Maloney’s favorability rating fell from 53-31 percent six weeks ago to 47-41 percent on the cusp of the election. Hayworth’s favorability rating had been negative 41-44 percent and is now negative 44-49 percent.
“Both candidates are viewed very favorably by their own party, very unfavorably by the other party and independents are closely divided on both,” Greenberg said. “Maloney is viewed favorably by between six and eight points in each region of the district, while Hayworth is viewed unfavorably in Orange and Dutchess Counties – where she trails Maloney – and favorably in Putnam/Westchester, where she leads.”
Cuomo & Astorino Neck & Neck, As Both Have Close to Break-Even Favorability Ratings
“Andrew Cuomo and Rob Astorino – both with slightly negative favorability ratings – are in a dogfight in this district. Cuomo is supported by 44 percent of likely voters and Astorino by 43 percent, while Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has eight percent support. Cuomo had led 45-40 percent six weeks ago,” Greenberg said. “Cuomo has a negative 46-50 percent favorability rating and Astorino’s is negative 39-41 percent.”
“Maloney had the early lead and holds a small lead heading into the campaign’s closing days. There’s a reason most national pundits call this race a ‘toss up.’ Both candidates are well known and strongly supported by their party’s voters. Three-quarters of both candidates’ supporters say there is no chance they will change their mind before Election Day,” Greenberg said. “In this district that has slightly more Democrats than Republicans – although the turnout on Tuesday will likely produce slightly more Republicans than Democrats – and where independents are evenly divided between the candidates, the key will be GOTV and turnout. Whichever campaign does the better job of turning out its supporters is likely to be celebrating late Tuesday night.”
This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 18th C.D. survey was conducted October 24-27, 2014 by telephone calls to 682 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters. Determined by a stringent screen, likely voters were statistically adjusted to reflect historic turnout by gender and age, and by party registration. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.