Monday, February 8, 2016
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton, who has a better favorability rating than Bernie Sanders among Democrats but a weaker favorability rating among all voters, leads Sanders 55-34 percent in a head-to-head matchup with New York Democrats. On the Republican side, Donald Trump has the support of 34 percent of New York GOPers, while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz each have the support of 16 percent and Chris Christie is the only other Republican in double digits with 11 percent support, according to a new Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today.
Clinton leads six leading Republicans by between 17 and 26 points, while Sanders runs up even bigger leads of between 22 and 33 points. Almost half of New Yorkers – including nearly two-thirds of Democrats – think Clinton will be the next President. Jobs (42 percent) and keeping America safe
(30 percent) are the top issues.
“Hillary, with a small uptick in her favorability rating since September, has a solid 21-point lead over Bernie with Democrats, despite a significant increase in his favorability rating,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Sanders has a net 13-point better favorability rating with all voters than Clinton, while she has a net nine-point better rating among Democrats,”
“Hillary’s lead among women is 31 points, while her lead among men is seven. She leads by 24 points in New York City and 32 points in the downstate suburbs, while only leading by eight points upstate,” Greenberg said. “And while Democrats under 35 are evenly divided, those 55 and older favor Clinton by 31 points.
“Trump’s overall 18-point lead is even larger among New York City Republicans, who give him a 26-point lead over Rubio, and downstate suburbanites, who give him a 27-point lead over Rubio. For upstate Republicans, this is a barnburner with Trump at 24 percent, followed by Cruz with 20 percent, Christie at 18 percent and Rubio with 17 percent,” Greenberg said. “Self-identified conservatives give Trump a 40-26 percent lead over Cruz, with Rubio in a distant fourth place with seven percent support.
“While six Republicans tested each have unfavorable ratings with all New York voters, only three are positive with Republicans: Rubio, plus 24 points, Christie, plus 16 points, and Trump plus eight. Rubio, Cruz and Christie are the only ones viewed favorably by conservatives,” Greenberg said.
NY Hasn’t Gone Republican in Presidential Race Since Reagan ’84; Not Likely to Break the Streak in ’16
“Rubio and Christie run best among Republicans against either Sanders or Clinton. Clinton leads those two by 17 and 19 points, respectively, while Sanders leads them by 22 and 23 points,” Greenberg said. “Clinton leads the other Republicans by between 23 and 26 points, while Sanders tops them even bigger, between 30 and 33 points.
“Clinton does slightly better than Sanders in each of the matchups against the Republican candidates with Democrats, however, Sanders does considerably better with Republican and independent voters than does Clinton in the matchups with these Republican candidates,” Greenberg said.
New York Dems See the Race as a Fait Accompli
“Nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 65 percent, think Hillary will be the next President, as do a plurality of independents, 40 percent. Republicans, however, are more spread out, with 32 percent thinking Trump will be the next President, compared to 22 percent who say Clinton and 12 percent who say Cruz,” Greenberg said. “Overall, 48 percent of New York voters think Clinton will be elected, compared to 19 percent who think it will be Trump and 10 percent Sanders, with the other candidates in single digits.”
Economy & Safety Dominate; Health Care, Immigration and Judicial Selection Are Distant Issues
“Overall, and among all partisan, geographic, racial, gender and age demographics, jobs and the economy and keeping America safe are the top two issues. Jobs beats out safety overall and with most demographic groups, excepting Republicans, conservatives and Jewish voters, while older voters are tied between safety and jobs,” Greenberg said. “Nearly three-quarters of all voters, 72 percent, said jobs and the economy was one of their top two issues, while 51 percent said keeping America safe was one of their top two.”
Obama & Biden Viewed Favorably; Direction of Country Improved but Still Under Water
“As he begins his final year in office, President Obama has a 59-38 percent favorability rating, up from 53-42 percent in December. He is viewed favorably by 84 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents, while 78 percent of Republicans view him unfavorably. While white voters are evenly divided, black voters view Obama favorably 92-7 percent,” Greenberg said.
“Vice President Joe Biden, who considered running for President has a better favorability rating than Clinton or Sanders at 60-32 percent. He’s viewed favorably by 78 percent of Democrats, 50 percent of independents and even 36 percent of Republicans,” Greenberg said.
“While 52 percent of New Yorkers think the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 36 percent who say America is on the right track, that’s significantly better than in December when it was 59-32 percent saying wrong direction,” Greenberg said. “Democrats, by 11 points, are positive about the country’s direction, while New York City voters are virtually evenly divided. However, a majority of independents, downstate suburbanites and upstaters, as well as three-quarters of Republicans, think the country is headed in the wrong direction.”
This Siena College Poll was conducted January 31-February 3, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 930 New York State registered voters, including 434 Democrats and 235 Republicans. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The margin of error is + 5.6 percentage points for Democrats and + 7.0 percentage points for Republicans. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline (from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc.) and cell phone (from Survey Sampling International) telephone numbers from within New York State weighted to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs:www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.