Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Representative Michael Grimm is locked in a neck-and-neck battle against Democratic challenger Domenic Recchia. Seven weeks out from Election Day, Grimm leads 44-40 percent, with four percent for Green Party candidate Henry Bardel and 12 percent undecided, according to a NY 1 News/Capital New York/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 11th C.D. voters released today. Grimm has a nine-point Staten Island lead while Recchia is ahead by seven points in Brooklyn.
With strong bipartisan support, three-quarters of likely voters support increasing the Federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10. Six in ten voters – with strong support from Democrats and independents and support from Republicans – want comprehensive immigration reform legislation passed (61-26 percent) and enactment of the ‘Buffett Rule,’ to require a minimum income tax rate of 30 percent on millionaires (60-22 percent). By a narrower 50-39 percent margin, voters want Obamacare repealed, with support from two-thirds of Republicans.
“With only four points separating the candidates, these next seven weeks look to be a major battle spanning the Verrazano Bridge. Currently, each candidate is winning the home court contest, as Grimm leads on the west side of the bridge 48-39 percent and Recchia leads 42-35 percent on the east side, about a quarter of the district,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Grimm has solidified his Republican base, a quarter of the electorate, leads by 14 points with independents, and has the support of more than one-quarter of Democrats. Recchia trails by 11 points with men but the two are virtually dead even among women.
“One-quarter of Staten Island voters – 20 percent of all voters – say Recchia’s Brooklyn residence makes them less likely to support him. However, more than half of voters, including 21 percent of current Grimm supporters, say Grimm’s current indictment makes them less likely to support him,” Greenberg said.
“Grimm is viewed unfavorably by nearly half of voters, down significantly from November 1, 2012, when he had a 52-34 percent favorability rating. Recchia is viewed more favorably than unfavorably but he remains unknown to almost half of voters,” Greenberg said. “While more than half of voters say they’ve seen Grimm commercials or been contacted by his campaign, only a little more than one-third of voters say they’ve been contacted by the Recchia campaign or have seen his commercials.”
“Likely voters lean to Grimm on jobs, health care and Social Security/Medicare. And they say Grimm will do a better job than Recchia by larger margins of between eight and 15 points on the turmoil in the Mideast, taxes, immigration and representing the community in Washington,” Greenberg said.
Bi-Partisan Support on Minimum Wage, Buffett Rule, Immigration Reform; Obamacare Divides Voters
“Voters of every party overwhelmingly favor raising the minimum wage. There’s also strong bipartisan support for immigration reform. Enacting the Buffett Rule is overwhelmingly supported by Democrats, has strong support from independents and plurality support among Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Repealing Obamacare is strongly supported by Republicans, supported by independents and opposed by a plurality of Democrats.”
Cuomo has Two-to-One Lead Over Astorino
“With support from more than three-quarters of Democrats, half of independents, one-third of Republicans, and 40 percent of Grimm voters, Andrew Cuomo has a huge 60-28 percent lead over Rob Astorino,” Greenberg said. “Cuomo has a 64-32 favorability rating. Astorino’s is 29-25 percent, with nearly half not knowing him.”
“Grimm and Recchia are already locked in a dogfight and there’s still seven weeks of campaigning to come,” Greenberg said. “Can Recchia bring Democrats back home? Can Grimm hold on to or expand his lead among independents? Can either candidate cut into his opponent’s home boro lead? Will Grimm’s indictment and scheduled trial have an impact on voters? Will undecided voters follow tradition and break towards the challenger? Stay tuned, this one figures to be exciting till the end.”
This NY 1 News/Capital New York/Siena College 11th C.D. survey was conducted September 9-14, 2014 by telephone calls to 585 likely voters. A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters that had been statistically adjusted to reflect party registration, gender and age. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.