Friday, October 31, 2014
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Representative Michael Grimm has opened a wide, 19-point lead over Democratic challenger Domenic Recchia. Grimm leads Recchia 53-34 percent, up significantly from a narrow 44-40 percent lead seven weeks ago, according to a NY 1 News/Capital New York/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 11th C.D. voters. Green Party candidate Henry Bardel has the support of five percent of voters. Grimm has gained this lead by solidifying his Republican base and turning a 14-point lead with independents into a 37-point lead.
“Early on, this race looked like it was going to be one of the closest in the state – a former Democratic City Council member taking on an embattled incumbent Republican under Federal indictment in a district that is – at least by enrollment – dominated by Democrats,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “That no longer seems to be the case, as Grimm has taken a commanding 19-point lead into the final days of the campaign.
“Recchia’s seven-point September lead in Brooklyn has been cut to a narrow three-point lead, while Grimm has extended his lead in Staten Island, which accounts for more than two-thirds of voters, from nine to 28 points. Grimm has the support of 83 percent of Republicans, up from 73 percent. He also has the support of 31 percent of Democrats and has a better than five-to-two lead with independents,” Greenberg said.
“Last month, Grimm led by 11 points with men, even as the candidates were virtually tied with women,” Greenberg said. “Today, Grimm leads by 19 points with men and women.”
“In mid-September, Grimm had a negative 39-49 percent favorability rating. In a complete reversal, today he had a positive 48-43 percent favorability rating. Recchia has gone in the opposite direction, as the percentage of voters viewing him unfavorably has doubled. He now has a negative 31-46 percent favorability rating,” Greenberg said.
“Grimm’s favorability rating is essentially unchanged with Democrats, however, his positive rating from Republicans has jumped from two-to-one to better than three-to-one. And independents, who had previously viewed Grimm unfavorably by an 11-point margin, now view him favorably by a 13-point margin,” Greenberg said. “Recchia’s favorability rating tanked with Republicans and independents.”
Cuomo Lead Over Astorino Slips from 32 Points to 23 Points
“Andrew Cuomo’s lead over Rob Astorino has narrowed since September. Cuomo’s lead over Astorino is now 56-33 percent, down from 60-28 percent. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has five percent support. Cuomo continues to be supported by three-quarters of Democrats and one-third of Republicans. His lead with independents, however, dropped from 16 points to six points,” Greenberg said. “Cuomo’s favorability remains strong, 58-38 percent, although it’s down from 64-32 percent previously. Astorino saw no increase in those viewing him favorably, 29 percent, while those viewing him unfavorably increased from 25 to 39 percent.”
“This has been a long, fierce, nasty campaign. As the Staten Island Advance said in its endorsement editorial yesterday, ‘As distasteful as this contest may be on a number of levels, we have a choice to make, as do the voters.’ Well, the voters – particularly those from Staten Island – appeared to have made that choice, and it’s the incumbent Grimm, despite his legal problems,” Greenberg said. “Voters seem willing to take a new liking to Grimm, and as more have come to know Recchia, they’ve come to view him unfavorably. Recchia faces a sizable gap and very little time to turn the ship around – if it’s even possible to still turn this ship around.”
This NY 1 News/Capital New York/Siena College 11th C.D. survey was conducted October 26-28, 2014 by telephone calls to 713 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters. Determined by a stringent screen, likely voters were statistically adjusted to reflect historic turnout by gender and age, and by party registration. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.