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Gibson Maintains Huge 23 Point Lead Over Eldridge

Gibson Maintains Huge 23 Point Lead Over Eldridge

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Time Warner Cable News / Siena College 19th Congressional District Poll:
Gibson Maintains Huge 23-Point Lead Over Eldridge
Voters Strongly View Incumbent Favorably; Divided on the Challenger

Loudonville, NY.  A week before Election Day, Republican Representative Chris Gibson continues to hold a commanding lead over Democrat Sean Eldridge. Gibson holds a 58-35 percent lead, virtually unchanged from his 57-33 percent lead seven weeks ago, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today.  By a 60-25 percent margin, voters have a favorable view of Gibson, whereas Eldridge divides voters, with 33 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably.

“Gibson heads into the final week of the campaign largely unscathed and with a commanding 23-point lead over Eldridge,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Over the last seven weeks, the Eldridge campaign has gained little or no traction with practically any constituency.

“Gibson has overwhelming support from 86 percent of Republicans, strong support from 60 percent of independents, and even has the support of more than one-quarter of Democrats, all virtually the same as the previous Time Warner Cable News/Siena poll,” Greenberg said. “He maintains a 13-point lead in the Ulster/Dutchess portion of the district and better than two-to-one leads in the other regions. He has a dominating 42-pont lead with men and leads among women by nine points. He leads by more than 20 points with voters 55 and older and has an even larger lead with voters younger than 55,” Greenberg said.

“As mailboxes across the 19th C.D. have been stuffed with literature promoting and attacking each candidate, and as airways have been flooded with both warm and fuzzy commercials and attack ads, Eldridge has become known to more voters. Unfortunately for him, there are as many voters that view him unfavorably as view him favorably,” Greenberg said.  “Gibson, who was well known throughout the district at the beginning of the campaign, continues to hold a better than two-to-one favorability rating.

“While Eldridge is viewed strongly favorably by Democrats and strongly unfavorably by Republicans, Gibson is viewed overwhelmingly favorably by Republicans and independents, even as Democrats are closely divided on their view of Gibson,” Greenberg said.

Cuomo & Astorino, Both Viewed Unfavorably, are Running Virtually Dead Even
“Rob Astorino is viewed favorably by only 35 percent of voters, while Andrew Cuomo is viewed favorably by only 37 percent. Given that, it’s no surprise that the race for governor in this district is a toss-up, as 39 percent support Astorino and 38 percent support Cuomo. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins, viewed favorably by 13 percent of voters, has the support of 14 percent,” Greenberg said. “Both major party candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably and it appears that for at least some voters this is a ‘hold your nose’ and vote for the candidate you dislike less election.”

“Gibson won his first re-election two years ago in a close, presidential election year, race.  He appears to be coasting to a much easier re-election this year,” Greenberg said. “The millions spent in the last few months on both sides of the political aisle have had a negligible effect on this race. Voters knew, liked and supported Gibson back in September and with just days until voters cast their ballots, they continue to know, like and support Gibson. To call Eldridge’s challenge in the next week a Herculean task is clearly an understatement.”

This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 19th C.D. was conducted October 22-24, 2014 by telephone calls to 727 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters. Determined by a stringent screen, likely voters were statistically adjusted to reflect historic turnout by gender and age, and by party registration. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.