Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Loudonville, NY. The race to replace retiring Republican Representative Chris Gibson is neck and neck, as Republican John Faso has the support of 43 percent of likely voters and Democrat Zephyr Teachout has the support of 42 percent, with 15 percent still undecided, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today. Both have identical 75 percent support among voters from their party, with independents virtually evenly divided between the two.
By large margins, voters say climate change is a real, significant threat; want a pathway to citizenship for aliens here illegally; and, consider themselves 2nd Amendment supporters rather than gun control supporters. Voters are closely divided on Obamacare, supporting its repeal by a small four-point margin, and whether the federal government should increase or lessen its role to stimulate the economy. In the race for President, Donald Trump has a 43-38 percent lead over Hillary Clinton, while Chuck Schumer has a 55-36 percent lead over Wendy Long in the race for United States Senator.
“This is the textbook definition of close. One point separates the candidates among both all voters and independents. Both have three-quarters support from their party’s voters, and the partisan breakdown of the district’s likely voters is near even as well,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Faso has a strong 14-point lead with men, while Teachout has a nearly as strong 11-point lead with women. She also leads by 20-points with those with a college degree, while he holds a 22-point lead among voters without a college degree. Teachout leads in Ulster and Dutchess Counties and Faso leads in the rest of the district.”
“Teachout, with a net 11-point positive favorability rating, is viewed a little more favorably than Faso, with a net two-point positive favorability rating, while each remains unknown to nearly four in ten likely voters,” Greenberg said. “Both have room for growth, which is not surprising given that 55 percent say they have not seen a Faso commercial or been contacted by his campaign, and 44 percent say the same about Teachout.”
On Major National Issues, Big Differences Between Dems & Reps; Inds in NY19 Closer to Reps
By 69-23 percent, voters say climate change is a real threat, rather than not real nor based on science. Voters say 61-33 percent illegal aliens should have path to citizenship rather than face deportation. By 56-38 percent, voters describe themselves as more supporters of 2nd Amendment rather than gun control. By 50-46 percent, voters narrowly support repealing rather than keeping the Affordable Care Act. And voters split 48-46 percent on whether the federal government should lessen its role, or do more, to stimulate economic activity.
“This is not a pure left or right ideological district. Voters, including huge majorities of Democrats and independents and a plurality of Republicans, say climate change is real and a significant threat,” Greenberg said. “Democrats overwhelmingly and independents strongly support a path to citizenship for those here illegally now, however, a small plurality or Republicans want to see them deported. On the other side, however, very large majorities of Republicans and independents identify as 2nd Amendment supporters, while Democrats strongly see themselves as gun control supporters. On Obamacare and federal involvement in the economy, voters are closely divided, with independents siding much more closely with Republicans.”
Trump has Small Lead Over Clinton in Close Race; Schumer Has Solid Double-Digit Lead Over Long
“While Trump and Clinton do well holding voters from their own party, Trump has a solid 18-point lead with independents, a similar 17-point lead with men, while only trailing by five points with women, and a stunning two-to-one lead with voters under 35. This all adds up to a small Trump edge in NY19,” Greenberg said. “With support from 90 percent of Democrats, more than one-quarter of Republicans and half of independents, Schumer has a strong 19-point lead against Long, who remains unknown to nearly three-quarters of voters.
“Both of these campaigns have been trying to positively define their own candidate, while also defining their opponent in increasingly negative ways,” Greenberg said. “Nearly half haven’t yet heard from Teachout’s campaign and more than half still haven’t heard from Faso’s. In this hotly contested open seat, it is likely the ad wars will intensify and this race very well may be on its way to a photo finish. Stay tuned. We will.”
This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 19th C.D. survey was conducted September 20-22, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 678 likely 19th C.D. voters. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.