Thursday, September 29, 2016
Loudonville, NY. Republican Claudia Tenney, supported by 35 percent of voters, leads Democrat Kim Myers by five points and Upstate Jobs Party candidate Martin Babinec by 11 points in the race to replace retiring Republican Representative Richard Hanna, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 22nd C.D. voters released today. Myers leads by 39 points with Democrats and Tenney leads with Republicans by 35 points, however, Babinec is second choice for Republicans, Democrats and independents.
Voters say they are 2nd Amendment supporters rather than gun control supporters (63-32 percent); call climate change a real, significant threat (65-27 percent); want a pathway to citizenship for immigrants here illegally (55-38 percent); support a smaller role for the federal government in stimulating the economy (54-39 percent); and, want Obamacare repealed (54-42 percent). Donald Trump has a solid 46-35 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for President, while in the race for United States Senator, Chuck Schumer has a large 60-35 percent lead over Wendy Long.
“In some races, candidates look for 50 percent, plus one more vote to ensure victory. In NY 22, however, the road to victory might be much closer to 40 percent,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Tenney, the only candidate with a negative favorability rating, has a small five-point lead over Myers, with Babinec trailing Myers by six points.
“In Broome/Tioga, Tenney leads Myers by seven points, with Babinec another six points behind. Tenney leads even bigger in Cortland/Madison/Chenango, by 15 points over Myers and 17 over Babinec. Tenney and Myers are within a point in Herkimer/Oneida/Oswego, with Babinec eight points off the lead,” Greenberg said.
“Babinec, drawing votes from across the board, has between 22 and 25 percent support from voters of every party, region and gender,” Greenberg said. “Tenney, most known to voters, is viewed unfavorably by nearly half, with a negative 34-46 percent favorability rating. Myers and Babinec each have small net positive favorability ratings, however, each is unknown to at least 43 percent of voters. And while those campaigns have had their commercials seen by about half of voters, Tenney’s commercials have been seen by more than two-thirds.”
Strong Support for 2nd Amendment & Recognizing Climate Change as Real Threat, 22nd C.D. Voters Say
“Although independent voters side with Democrats on global climate change and creating a pathway for illegal aliens, producing strong support for those issues, independents side more strongly with Republicans on gun issues, federal involvement in stimulating the economy and the need to repeal Obamacare,” Greenberg said. “Two-thirds of likely voters say either jobs or keeping America safe are the biggest issues for the next representative to work on in Congress, with jobs being most important for Tenney, Myers and Babinec voters.’
Trump Has Double Digit Lead Over Clinton; Schumer Leads Long by 25 Points
“Clinton leads Trump by eight points with women and Trump has a commanding 29-point lead with men. And while Clinton has the support of two-thirds of Myers voters, Trump has nearly three-quarters of Tenney voters and has a 10-point lead among Babinec voters,” Greenberg said. “Schumer has the backing of 88 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of independents and even 40 percent of Republicans, as he coasts to a 25-point lead.
“Rarely do we see a truly competitive three-way race but that is certainly what is playing out in NY 22. In a district with a double-digit Republican enrollment edge, the Republican candidate is being strongly challenged by both a Democrat and an independent whose party identification happens to coincide with the most important issue for voters,” Greenberg said. “As the air war and ground game intensifies over the coming weeks, it is likely that all the candidates will become more known to voters. We will continue to monitor the race to see which candidate or candidates have the ability to bring more voters into their camp.”
This Time Warner Cable News/Siena College 22nd C.D. survey was conducted September 21-26, 2016 by telephone calls in English to 649 likely 22nd C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and interest in the upcoming election as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.