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Clinton Ahead of Trump, 46 – 39%

Clinton Ahead of Trump, 46 – 39%

Thursday, October 27, 2016

New York Times Upshot/ Siena College Pennsylvania Poll:
Clinton Ahead of Trump, 46 – 39%
McGinty Holds Slim 3 Point Lead over Toomey


Loudonville, NY.  Hillary Clinton is ahead of  Donald Trump by 7 points, 46-39 percent in a four-way race for Pennsylvania’s key electoral votes, according to a New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research Institute poll of 824 likely Pennsylvania voters released today.  In Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty holds a 3 point advantage, 47-44 percent over Republican incumbent Pat Toomey.

“With less than two weeks until Election Day, Trump has fallen seven points behind Clinton in a four-way race in which Gary Johnson garners six percent of the vote and Green Party candidate, Jill Stein is supported by three percent. McGinty holds a small three point advantage over Toomey in a pivotal battle that could determine control of the Senate,” said Siena College Poll Director Don Levy. “Trump trails among men by a single point while Clinton has opened up a thirteen point advantage among women.”

“Both major candidates have net negative favorability ratings.  Clinton is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by a majority, 53 percent.  Trump’s favorable rating is 38 percent and his unfavorable number is 59 percent,” said Levy.  “And most voters told us that they will be very upset if they wake up on November 9th and the candidate that they oppose is President.  Of those not supporting Clinton, 61 percent would be very upset if she wins while among those not supporting Trump, 65 percent would be very upset should he win.”

Clinton has a commanding lead among African-Americans as well as leads in the Philadelphia suburbs and among college educated voters.  But in the Keystone State, despite Democrats holding a registration advantage, likely voters lean towards supporting continued Republican control of the House of Representatives.  Trump, ahead among white voters, and in the northeastern, central and southeastern parts of the state, needs turnout to fall his way if he hopes to celebrate a victory in this battleground state.


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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College survey was conducted October 23-25, 2016 by telephone calls to 824 likely voters.  Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones.  A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on both their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history.  This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, gender and race.  This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.  The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS.  SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-783-2901.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.   This collaboration between New York Times Upshot and the Siena College Research Institute is dedicated to transparency and welcomes any requests for data as well as discussion of methodology.