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Can’t Be Closer: Trump 44%, Clinton 44%

Can’t Be Closer: Trump 44%, Clinton 44%

Monday, November 7, 2016

New York Times Upshot/ Siena College North Carolina Poll:

Can’t Be Closer: Trump 44%, Clinton 44%

Burr 46%, Ross 45%; Cooper by 1 Point over McCrory

Loudonville, NY.  Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied, 44-44 percent, one day before the election in a three-way race for North Carolina’s key electoral votes, according to a New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely North Carolina voters released today.  In September, Trump and Clinton were tied 41-41 percent in North Carolina, but two weeks ago, Clinton had held a seven point advantage.  The race between Republican Senator Richard Burr and Democratic challenger, Deborah Ross remains tight with Burr holding a one point lead, 46-45 percent, after trailing Ross by a single point, 47-46 percent two weeks ago.  In the race for Governor, Democrat Attorney General Roy Cooper has seen his lead over Republican incumbent Pat McCrory drop from 51-45 percent two weeks ago to a single point, 47-46 percent today. 

“Donald Trump has overcome a seven point deficit to tie his race for North Carolina with Hillary Clinton,” said Siena College Poll Director Don Levy. “Clinton leads by a wide thirteen point margin among those that voted early while Trump has a nineteen point lead among those planning to vote on Election Day. Turnout will decide this razor sharp battle not only for which color, blue or red, North Carolina will be painted in the Presidential race but also whether a D or R represents the state in the Senate and as well its Governor.”


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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College survey was conducted November 4-6, 2016 by telephone calls to 800 likely voters.  Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones.  A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on both their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history or overridden if they had already voted in which case their voting probability was 100%.  This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, gender and race.  This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.  The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS.  SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Don Levy at 518-783-2901.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.   This collaboration between New York Times Upshot and the Siena College Research Institute is dedicated to transparency and welcomes any requests for data as well as discussion of methodology.