Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Loudonville, NY. Only 31 percent of voters believe Donald Trump at the top of the ticket will help Republicans maintain control of the State Senate while 62 percent believe Trump will not help Republicans. By a slightly bigger margin, 64-29 percent, voters say Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket will help Democrats regain control of the State Senate, according to a new Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released today.
Senator Chuck Schumer continues to coast in his bid for a fourth six-year term. With a 58-31 percent favorability rating (down a little from 60-28 percent in June), Schumer crushes Wendy Long, 63-24 percent (down slightly from 66-23 percent in June), who remains unknown to more than three-quarters of voters.
“In their quest to maintain control of the New York State Senate, Republicans – who continue to face a two-to-one enrollment disadvantage to Democrats in New York – have the added burden of following Donald Trump on the ballot. Voters overwhelmingly say both that Trump will not help Republicans hold the Senate and that Clinton will help Democrats regain control,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Three-quarters of Democrats say that Trump hurts the Republicans and Clinton helps the Democrats, as do strong majorities of independents. Only half of Republicans think Trump helps them and they are evenly divided on whether Clinton helps the Democrats,” Greenberg said. “Upstaters and downstaters agree that Trump hurts Republican chances of holding the Senate while Clinton helps Democrats retake the Legislature’s upper house.
“Of course, the equation of Senate control is more likely than not going to be decided by whether the Independent Democratic Conference decides to continue its partnership with Senate Republicans or reunites with its Democratic colleagues,” Greenberg said. “Siena will once again be looking more closely at key State Senate races across the state as we move into the fall election season.”
The State Senate has a 41-45 percent favorability rating, little changed from 41-47 percent in June, and 46 percent are prepared to re-elect their incumbent State Senator, while 39 percent would prefer ‘someone else.’ The Assembly has a 41-40 percent favorability rating, up from 39-46 percent in June, and a 42-36 percent re-elect.
“Despite all the scandals, indictments, trials, and convictions, New Yorkers are closely divided about each house of the State Legislature, and with 12 weeks till election day – four weeks for those facing primaries – voters show no tendency to be in a ‘vote the bums out’ mentality. Pluralities are prepared to re-elect incumbent legislators in both houses,” Greenberg said.
Popular Chuck Cruising in Bid for Re-election Against Unknown Wendy
“Schumer – on the cusp of becoming Democratic leader of the United State Senate if he can clear the hurdle of a re-election by New York voters – is about as far ahead as one can be 83 days before an election,” Greenberg said. “With a nearly 40-point lead against an opponent who is unknown to 77 percent of voters, the popular incumbent seems to be cruising to a fourth term.
“Schumer has the support of 82 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents. Long only leads Schumer among Republicans 52-33 percent. Schumer has at least 57 percent support against Long in every region of the state,” Greenberg said. “The real question may be how well Long does compared to four years ago, when she lost to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 72-26 percent.”
Cuomo: Up a Little; Down a Little
Governor Andrew Cuomo has a 53-40 percent favorability rating, down a little from 56-38 percent in June, and his job performance rating is a negative 43-55 percent, up from negative 40-59 percent in June. If he runs for re-election in 2018, 46 percent say they’re prepared to re-elect him, compared to 47 percent who would prefer ‘someone else,’ largely unchanged from 46-48 in June.
“When it comes to the Governor, voters give a little and take a little back – both in this month’s poll and over the last two years. This month, Cuomo’s job performance rating is up but his favorability rating is down almost as much,” Greenberg said. “However, this is a pattern we’ve seen over the last two years as his favorability and job performance ratings rise or fall a few points but stay relatively consistent. Two years ago, in August 2014, Cuomo’s job performance rating was 44-55 percent, virtually identical to today’s and his favorability rating was a little higher at 57-36 percent, although it was down to 49-44 percent in July 2015, a little lower than today.”
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This Siena College Poll was conducted August 7-10, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 717 New York State registered voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers (landline sample: ASDE Survey Sampling; cell sample: Survey Sampling International) from within New York State weighted to reflect known population patterns. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs:www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.