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Bishop Has 10-Point Lead Over Zeldin 7 Weeks Out

Bishop Has 10-Point Lead Over Zeldin 7 Weeks Out

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Newsday / News 12 Long Island / Siena College 1st Congressional District Poll:
Bishop Has 10-Point Lead Over Zeldin 7 Weeks Out
Strong Support for Minimum Wage Increase, Term Limits, ‘Buffett Rule’ and Immigration Reform; Majority Support for Repealing Obamacare and Greater US Involvement in Mideast to Combat Terrorism
Bishop Leads By Similar Margins in Brookhaven & East End Towns;
Zeldin Leads by 6 Points with Men & Bishop has 23-Point Lead with Women

Loudonville, NY.  Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Bishop holds a 10-point lead over Republican Lee Zeldin, 51-41 percent, with eight percent undecided, according to a Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 1st C.D. voters released today.  Bishop leads by nine points in Brookhaven and 10 points in the rest of the district.  While Zeldin leads by six points with men, Bishop has a large 23-point lead with women.

Likely voters strongly support increasing the federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour (70-21 percent), amending the Constitution to implement congressional term limits (68-16 percent), enacting the ‘Buffett Rule’ to impose a minimum 30 percent income tax rate on millionaires (61-22 percent), and passing comprehensive immigration reform legislation (65-21 percent). Majorities also support repealing and replacing Obamacare (51-37 percent) and seeing the country do more in the Mideast to combat terrorism (52-40 percent).

“Bishop has an early 10-point lead in a district with slightly more Republicans than Democrats, that he won by five points two years ago and by only about 600 votes in the last gubernatorial election year,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Bishop leads by more than 60 points with Democrats, 20 points with independents and has the support of nearly a quarter of Republicans. He leads by nine points in Brookhaven and 10 points out east.

“There is a significant gender gap in this race,” Greenberg said. “Zeldin is leading with men 48-42 percent, while Bishop has a commanding 58-35 percent lead with women. While Zeldin cleans up with conservatives and Bishop with liberals, Bishop has a two-to-one lead with moderates, who account for nearly half the voters.”

“By a 54-39 percent margin, voters view Bishop favorably, very close to the 50-39 favorability rating he had in September 2012. While he’s slightly under water with men, it’s two-to-one favorable with women. Zeldin is unknown to about a third of voters but has a strong 40-29 percent favorability rating, positive with most demographic groups other than Democrats,” Greenberg said.

“Jobs is the most important issue to voters and by 10 points they say Bishop will be better on that issue. Zeldin and Bishop run very close in voters’ minds on taxes, turmoil in the Mideast and immigration,” Greenberg said. “They give Bishop double digit leads in addressing health care and Social Security and Medicare.”

Strong Bi-Partisan Support on 4 Issues; Majority Support with Partisan Split on Mideast & Obamacare
“Republicans and Democrats agree on passing immigration reform, enacting the Buffett Rule, increasing the minimum wage and congressional term limits,” Greenberg said. “However, while a strong majority of Democrats oppose repealing Obamacare, more than two-thirds of Republicans and a majority of independents want Obamacare replaced. And Republicans and independents want the U.S. to do more politically and militarily in Iraq and Syria to combat terrorism, Democrats say we should focus on problems here at home.”

With the Support of 1/3 of Republicans, Cuomo Leads Astorino By 20 Points
“Governor Andrew Cuomo, with strong support from Democrats, independents and 33 percent of Republicans, leads Rob Astorino 52-32 percent,” Greenberg said. “He leads by 35 points with women and four points with men. Cuomo has a 56-40 percent favorability rating. Astorino – 24-26 percent – is unknown to half of voters.”

“With seven weeks to go, this race is likely to be a hotly contested battle between a popular incumbent Democratic Representative and a popular Republican State Senator.  Enrollment and lower turnout in a gubernatorial year favor Zeldin.  However, Bishop is better known, viewed stronger on more issues and is certainly not hurt by having Cuomo at the top of the ticket,” Greenberg said. “This is one to watch.”

This Newsday/News 12 Long Island/Siena College 1st C.D. survey was conducted September 7-11, 2014 by telephone calls to 592 likely voters.  A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters that had been statistically adjusted to reflect party registration, gender and age.  It has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.  The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS.  SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.  In that the New York State Board of Elections' list of candidates in CD1 included a third-party candidate, the survey initially included that candidate in the 'horserace' question.  Because that candidate had been removed from the ballot, those who said they would vote for him were recontacted and the results adjusted accordingly.