4/23/2014 10:25:23 PM

Siena Poll: Cuomo Still Leads Paladino

Thursday, September 23, 2010

 Cuomo Continues Better than 2-to-1 Lead Over Paladino

 Voters See Cuomo – with Experience & Know-How – as Better on All Issues
 Voters Divided on Paladino Being ‘Loose Cannon’ & Having Right Experience
 Schumer, Gillibrand, DiNapoli Lead Big; Schneiderman Leads Donovan by 13 Points

Loudonville, NY.  With less than six weeks until Election Day, Democrat Andrew Cuomo (57 percent) continues to maintain a huge lead over Republican Carl Paladino (24 percent) and Conservative Party candidate Rick Lazio (eight percent).  Voters rank Cuomo as the more effective candidate than either of the other two on seven key issues.   While they are split on whether Paladino’s business experience and temperament are what New York needs in its next governor, they do believe Cuomo has the right experience and know-how for the office, according to a Siena College poll of registered New York voters released today. 
 
In other statewide races, Senator Charles Schumer leads Republican Jay Townsend 63-30 percent, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand leads Republican former Congressman Joe DioGuardi 57-31 percent, State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Harry Wilson 51-25 percent, and State Senator Eric Schneiderman (D-Manhattan) leads District Attorney Dan Donovan (R-Staten Island) 45-32 percent in the race for Attorney General.
 
“After his lopsided victory in the Republican primary, Paladino is now better known by New York voters – but not necessarily better liked, other than by Republican and conservative voters.  The good news for Paladino is that since last month, he has picked up 10 points against Cuomo.  The bad news is that he remains far behind, trailing Cuomo by 33 points, while Lazio siphons off eight percent of the anti-Cuomo vote,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. 
 
“In campaign terms, 40 days is a lifetime so there’s time for Paladino to connect with voters and turn this race around, as his Republican primary performance proves. However, he has a very big hill to climb,” Greenberg said. “Also, voters see Cuomo as much stronger on issues, including the three issues voters most want the next governor to address – jobs, state budget deficits and education. He leads Paladino by about 40 points on education and health care. He has a better than 20-point lead on jobs, state government ethics, and the state budget, and about a 10-point edge on property taxes and state taxes.”
 
– more –
Siena College Poll – September 23, 2010 – Page 2
 
Who will be more effective in addressing the issue of…
Issue
Cuomo
Paladino
Lazio
DK/NO
Creating new jobs for New Yorkers
49%
24%
10%
16%
Improving elementary, secondary & higher education
56%
15%
11%
18%
Holding the line on state taxes
41%
30%
12%
17%
Reforming state government ethics laws
50%
25%
  9%
16%
Fighting for fair, balanced, on-time state budgets
47%
25%
11%
17%
Ensuring the affordability of quality health care
56%
17%
  9%
18%
Addressing the rate of local property taxes
38%
29%
12%
21%
Siena College Poll – September 23, 2010
 
“Voters don’t think that Cuomo is too much of an Albany insider to effectively reform state government, however, they also don’t believe that Paladino, coming from outside Albany, will be able to whip the state Legislature into shape.  Voters are evenly divided on whether or not Paladino is a ‘loose cannon,’ who doesn’t have the temperament to be governor,” Greenberg said.  “While voters are split on whether Paladino’s business experience is what is needed, they strongly agree that Cuomo’s experience and knowledge of how government works will benefit New York.
 
“By a nearly two-to-one margin, voters disagree that the state is in such bad shape that neither Paladino nor Cuomo can get the state moving in the right direction,” Greenberg said.  “This is one of the very few questions where virtually every group of voters feels the same.  Whether looked at by party, ideology, geography, gender, or gubernatorial candidate support, between 27 and 36 percent of each of those groups believes that New York is so bad off that neither candidate could move the state forward.”
 
When it comes to the Tea Party movement, 34 percent of New York voters have a favorable view and 49 percent have an unfavorable view.  Republicans view the Tea Party overwhelmingly favorably, 58-24 percent, Democrats overwhelmingly unfavorably, 19-63 percent, and independents somewhat unfavorably 36-48 percent.
 
“Knowing how a voter feels about the Tea Party movement is a strong indicator – often stronger than party identification – of that voter’s views on candidates and issues,” Greenberg said.  “Those who view the Tea Party unfavorably support Cuomo over Paladino by a whopping 82-6 percent margin.  Tea Party enthusiasts are supporting Paladino, but not by nearly as large a margin, 53-23 percent, with 14 percent for Lazio.
 
“Looked at the other way, Paladino voters are overwhelmingly favorable towards the Tea Party, 74-12 percent, while Cuomo voters feel just the opposite, with only 14 percent viewing it favorably and 70 percent unfavorably.  Those viewing the Tea Party favorably are much more likely to side with Paladino on the issues, while those viewing it unfavorably strongly favor Cuomo,” Greenberg said.
 
– more –
Siena College Poll – September 23, 2010 – Page 3
Statewide Horse Races
Race
Democrat
Republican
Conservative
DK/NO
Governor
Cuomo
57%
Paladino
24%
Lazio
8% 
10% 
Comptroller
DiNapoli
51%
Wilson
25%
 
25%
Attorney General
Schneiderman
45%
Donovan
32%
23%
Senator (Full term)
Schumer
63%
Townsend
30%
  6%
Senator (Special)
Gillibrand
57%
DioGuardi
31%
12%
Siena College Poll – September 23, 2010
 
Gillibrand Is In Her Strongest Electoral Position Since She Was Appointed Senator
“Coming off his Republican primary victory, DioGuardi has not gotten any momentum or gained any ground on his effort to unseat Gillibrand.  Gillibrand has a 26-point lead over DioGuardi, and the 57 percent support she currently has is a record high for her,” Greenberg said.  “Another high point for Gillibrand is that on the generic question, 44 percent support electing her, compared to 37 percent who prefer ‘someone else.’
 
“Being viewed favorably by 43 percent of voters is also a high water mark for Gillibrand, who is viewed unfavorably by 26 percent, with another 30 percent having no opinion or not knowing her.  DioGuardi is unknown to nearly two-thirds of voters, and among those who have an opinion, they are evenly divided between those who view him favorably and unfavorably,” Greenberg said.
 
“Six weeks out, Gillibrand sits in a comfortable position but a year-and-a-half after assuming the office, she remains more unknown than the average United States Senator seeking to retain that office,” Greenberg said.
 
Schumer Maintains Two-to-One Lead Over Townsend, Who Gets No Bounce From Primary Win
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
 
Favorable
Unfavorable
DK/NO
Andrew Cuomo
60%
31%
  9%
Carl Paladino
32%
36%
32%
Rick Lazio
29%
43%
28%
 
Tom DiNapoli
21%
16%
63%
Harry Wilson
10%
11%
79%
 
Eric Schneiderman
21%
16%
63%
Dan Donovan
10%
13%
77%
 
Charles Schumer
58%
32%
10%
Jay Townsend
12%
11%
76%
 
Kirsten Gillibrand
43%
26%
30%
Joe DioGuardi
18%
17%
65%
 
Barack Obama
60%
36%
  4%
 
David Paterson
32%
59%
  8%
 
Tea Party Movement
34%
49%
18%
Siena College Poll – September 23, 2010
“Schumer’s current lead over Townsend, 63-30 percent, is virtually unchanged from the lead he had in July, 63-26 percent,” Greenberg said.  “Voters continue to view Schumer very favorably and more than three-quarters of voters don’t know enough about Townsend to even have an opinion about him.
 
“Lack of name recognition and lack of resources against a popular Schumer puts Townsend in a true ‘David and Goliath’ position,” Greenberg said.
 
– more –
Siena College Poll – September 23, 2010 – Page 4
 
DiNapoli Extends Lead Over Wilson, As Both Candidates Remain Largely Unknown
“To ask a paraphrased cliché, if two candidates vie for the attention of voters but they don’t notice, does it count as a campaign?  Both DiNapoli, despite being Comptroller for more than three years, and Wilson, a first-time candidate, are flying way below the voters’ campaign radar screen,” Greenberg said. 
 
“DiNapoli extended his lead over the last month and now leads Wilson 51-25 percent, with 25 percent still undecided.  Without naming an opponent, only 23 percent of voters are inclined to elect DiNapoli, while 31 percent would prefer ‘someone else.’  DiNapoli would appear to be vulnerable, however, it does not appear that Wilson has yet made a chink in the Comptroller’s armor,” Greenberg said.
 
Race for Attorney General is Closest Statewide Race; Schneiderman Leads Donovan 45-32 Percent
“Gaining limited name recognition and a little momentum from his Democratic primary victory, Schneiderman leads Donovan by 13 points, up from five points in May, when both candidates were even more unknown,” Greenberg said.  “Schneiderman is viewed favorably by 21 percent of voters, unfavorably by 16 percent and unknown to nearly two-thirds, while Donovan has a negative 10-13 favorability rating, with three-quarters of voters not knowing him.
 
“At the moment, this race is the closest and most wide open of the statewide races.  The challenge for both candidates is to become better known to the voters as each of them tries to convince voters that he is the best person to be the state’s top lawyer,” Greenberg said.
 
Voters Still Prefer ‘Someone Else’ over Incumbent State Senator, But Not By as Much
“While 47 percent of voters would prefer ‘someone else’ to re-electing their state senator, that’s down from last month’s 51 percent.  And the percentage of voters prepared to re-elect their state senator is up to 38 percent, from 31 percent last month,” Greenberg said.  “A plurality of Democrats and New York City voters want to re-elect their senator, while strong majorities of Republicans and upstate voters want ‘someone else.’
 
“Voters’ attitude on control of the State Senate remains a mixed bag, as Democrats want a larger Democratic majority, Republicans want their party to regain control and independent voters prefer keeping the Senate closely divided between the two parties,” Greenberg said.  “Overall, 36 percent want the Democrats to increase their majority, 27 percent want a Republican takeover, and 31 percent want to see a closely divided Senate.”
# # #
This SRI survey was conducted September 16-17, 19-21, 2010 by telephone calls to 801 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.5 percentage points.  Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region, and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing weighted to reflect known population patterns. SRI is an independent, non-partisan research institute. SRI subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.  For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
 
 

 


Contact: Don Levy
Contact E-mail: dlevy@siena.edu

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