5/18/2013 6:27:09 PM
Siena Poll: CD24: Arcuri in the Lead
Monday, September 20, 2010
Siena College 24th Congressional District Poll:
Arcuri Leads Hanna 48% to 40% in Tight Rematch of ’08 Race
Voters Give Arcuri Edge on 4 Issues & Hanna Has Edge on 1 Issue
Support for Obama Stimulus Plan & Eliminating Tax Cuts for Wealthy
Loudonville, NY. Six weeks before Election Day, Representative Michael Arcuri holds an eight point lead, 48-40 percent, over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in this hotly contested rematch of the 2008 race that Arcuri won 52-48 percent. On a series of six issues, voters give Arcuri the edge on four, Hanna the edge on one, and on the issue of taxes, voters see it as a toss-up, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today. Voters support President Obama’s stimulus proposal and his proposal to eliminate tax cuts for the wealthy. They are evenly split on whether to implement or repeal the recently passed federal health care reform legislation.
“Picking up the campaign where they left off two years ago, Michael Arcuri and Richard Hanna are locked in a tight battle, with Arcuri holding an early 48-40 percent lead. While he has an eight-point lead, Arcuri does not top the magic 50 percent mark,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Arcuri leads among Democrats by 61 points, while Hanna leads among Republicans by 33 points.
“Arcuri leads in every region of the district, however, he is strongest in the western part of the district. Women give Arcuri a 15-point edge, while men favor the incumbent 47-45 percent. And while Catholic voters favor Arcuri by nearly twenty points, Protestant voters give Hanna a double digit lead,” Greenberg said.
“Hanna and Arcuri both have roughly two-to-one favorability ratings, however, Arcuri is better known throughout the district,” Greenberg said. “When asked whether they are inclined to re-elect Arcuri, or would they prefer ‘someone else,’ by a slim 44-38 percent margin, voters say they would re-elect Arcuri.”
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Siena College 24th C.D. Poll – September 20, 2010 – Page 2
“President Obama is viewed unfavorably by as many voters as view him favorably. Similarly, the Tea Party movement divides voters into nearly equal size groups of those who view it favorably and those who view it unfavorably. Sarah Palin is viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has even more voters viewing her unfavorably. And more than two-thirds of voters have an unfavorable view of the United States Congress,” Greenberg said.
Voters rank jobs (46 percent) as by far the most important issue for their Member of Congress. The federal deficit (15 percent) is next, followed by health care (13 percent), the Afghanistan war (nine percent), education, and taxes (eight percent each).
“More voters say jobs is the most important issue they want their Representative working on than say the next three biggest issues combined, and voters only give a small three-point edge to Arcuri as the candidate who would be best on that issue,” Greenberg said. “They give Arcuri a seven-point edge on the war in Afghanistan, an eight point edge on health care and a 15-point edge on education. Hanna has a slim three-point edge on the budget deficit, and voters are evenly divided between Hanna and Arcuri on taxes.”
“Voters support Obama’s proposed new stimulus plan, 55-39 percent, and also support eliminating tax cuts for the wealthy by a similar 54-42 percent margin. More than 70 percent of Democrats support the President’s proposals, as do a majority of independents, while a majority of Republicans oppose them,” Greenberg said. “Voters split evenly on whether to implement or repeal the health care reform legislation enacted this year.”
“Neither Rocky 2 nor Ali-Frasier 2 have anything on Arcuri-Hanna II. This rematch figures to be just as intense and just as hard fought as the race two years ago,” Greenberg said. “While Arcuri has two more years of a record in Congress, it’s hard to know whether that will help him or hurt him in a year where voters are unhappy with Washington. This race is getting national attention, and we can certainly understand why.”
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This Siena College 24th C.D. survey was conducted September 13-15, 2010 by telephone calls to 605 likely voters drawn from registered voter households. It has a margin of error of + 4.0 percentage points. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
Contact: Don Levy
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